The current situation in terms of accessibility in the EU suggests that there is a marked division between central and peripheral areas as regards their transport connectivity and costs. Peripheral areas have higher average costs of transport, owing not only to the need for longer trips, but also to the more expensive or less efficient transport solutions that are available.
Interurban and regional travel (up to 500 km), responsible for around 33% of emissions, is mostly performed by cars (around 29% of total transport emissions), followed by planes (approx. 2%) and motorcycles (around 1%). Coaches and buses, rail and inland navigation provide all together around 1%.
The cost of EU infrastructure that would be required to match the demand for transport is estimated at over EUR 1.5 Trillion for 2010-2030. However, in the coming years and decades there will be an increasing difficulty in finding the means for investing in transport infrastructure. The European Commission identifies two negative but altogether realistic issues, an ageing society which implies that larger amount of resources will be absorbed by social security expenditure and the prolonged 2008-2009 economic crisis that has severely hit public budgets and private lending. Once the recession is over, it will leave a legacy of long budget consolidation processes and transport infrastructure investment planning.
These developments will intensify the declining trend in transport infrastructure financing from government budget, which, before the financial crisis, was to some extent compensated by an increase in private sector financing. The financing gap needs to be filled through combined efforts by the governments, the EU, financial institutions and through new capital markets models and new pricing mechanisms, such as congestion pricing. The overall funding mechanism needs to turn more towards the “user pays” principle.
The urban dimension will become even more important as the percentage of Europeans living in urban areas is projected to increase from 74% today to around 85% in 2050. The design of sustainable cities is one of the greatest challenges of policy makers. Fortunately, the urban environment offers many alternatives in terms of mobility. Switching to cleaner energy is facilitated by the lower requirements for the range of vehicles. Public transport choices are more widely available, as well as the option of walking and cycling. Demand management and enlightened land-use planning can also contribute significantly to lower traffic volumes.
Preserving mobility will only be possible by making it sustainable. The European transport system has developed in a context of generally cheap oil, expanding infrastructure, technological leadership and limited environmental constraints, but now has to adapt to different framework conditions. The projected growth of the emerging economies and of world population is bound to put pressure on natural resources.
Transforming transport and making it more efficient, cleaner, safer and more reliable will not be possible with just a small number of selected interventions. Transport is a complex system that is based on the interaction of infrastructure, vehicles, information technology, rules and behaviour. All these elements must be part of a common vision for change.
It is imperative for public transport to gain a higher share than today in the transport mix, become easily accessible for everyone and fully integrated with non-motorised modes.
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