Rail freight was hit hard by crisis and volumes fell by around 20% in 2009 on average. Preliminary estimates from the International Transport Forum’s quarterly database indicate 8% rail freight growth in the EU and in Russia, with 11% growth in the United States in 2010.
Despite positive developments, recovery in global freight is still uncertain and weak. Air cargo has fully recovered from crisis and goods moved by air were above pre-crisis volumes in December 2010. However,trade by sea was still below pre-crisis level measured in tonnes of goods carried. Recovery in surface freight in the EU area has been slower. Rail and road tonne- km were still 16.0% and 13.5% below their pre-crisis levels in the last quarter of 2010. In the United States, rail recovery has been more rapid and rail tonne-km were only 2.4% below the second quarter 2008 level in Q4/2010.
By the end of 2010 exports of manufactures had only just returned to a level close to their pre-crisis maximum, while particular categories such as automotive products and iron and steel were still well below their mid-2008 peaks.
World merchandise trade in 2011 would see exports grow by 6.5%, with shipments from developed countries increasing by around 4.5% and those from developing economies and the CIS advancing 9.5%.
The growth of world exports in 2010 was the fastest on record in a data series going back to 1950, it might have been even faster if trade had quickly reverted to its pre-crisis trend. This did not happen. The rebound was strong enough for world exports to recover their peak level of 2008, but it was not strong enough to bring about a return to the previous growth path.
For 2011, the economists are forecasting a more modest 6.5% increase, but with uncertainty about the impact of a number of recent events, including the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. If achieved, this would be higher than the 6.0% average yearly increase between 1990 and 2008. Forecasting which predicts a 4.5 per cent increase in demand for imported goods and services in 2011 on the part of developed economies (or more precisely, the members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD).
World GDP at market exchange rates expanded 3.6% in 2010, one year after an unprecedented contraction of 2.4% that accompanied the financial crisis in 2009. Output of developed economies rose 2.6% in the latest year after falling 3.7% in 2009, while the rest of the world (including developing economies and the CIS) grew 7.0%, up from 2.1% in 2009.
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