A dynamic growth of 8% per year in the light rail vehicle OEM market is expected over the next five years, Asia, North America and Western Europe having the largest share, according to the latest SCI Verkehr report.
The key driver for this is the increasing number of cities that have to replace their old vehicles or opt for the construction of a new light rail lines. Over the next few years, Western Europe will increasingly invest in replacement purchases for old vehicles and in new tram-train systems. China is steadily expanding its systems in its cities, and cities in the USA are increasingly investing in new infrastructure, SCI Verkehr says.
The greatest growth potential for the light rail market is to be found in countries with stable economic resources where no LRT system currently exists. This is typically the case in China or the USA. In the study, SCI Verkehr presents three scenarios for the future development of the new LRT networks.
The baseline scenario unveils that by 2030, an additional 3,500 additional route-km is expected to be operational.
In the last five years, more than 5,000 LRVs have been delivered, far more than in previous years. SCI Verkehr expects a further increase, as the attractiveness of the cities depends largely on the quality and efficiency of their public transport systems. Climate protection aspects as well as bans on private cars in the cities are massively driving this development forward.
The current global market volume for new vehicles is around EUR 2.6 billion per year, while the value of the maintenance and after-sales is around EUR 3 billion per year.
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