“The Eastern European rail market is on a positive trend, and we estimate a 3.3% growth from 2021/2023 to 2027/2029. By segment, rolling stock ranks first with a 7% annual growth, of which the EMU sector will register increase while the DMU market will decline. An important trend is that we are transitioning from combustion towards alternative propulsion including electrification,” Enno Wiebe, the Director General of UNIFE said at Railway Days, organised by Club Feroviar in Bucharest on 29-30 October.
Enno Wiebe also highlighted that due to the transition to EMUs, locomotives and shunters will register the largest decline on both Western and Eastern European rail market, while high-speed train segment is expected to grow in all regions of the world including in Western Europe.
Due to TEN-T Regulation, all EU countries need to align their rail infrastructure to meet requirements, including the completion of core network by 2030 and the comprehensive network which has to be completed by 2050. By 2040, passenger railway lines on the core and extended core network must support trains travelling at speeds of 160 km/h or faster which highlights the importance of investment in infrastructure and signalling, especially the deployment of the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS).
The European countries have allocated varying amounts of stimulus to transport, with a particular focus in infrastructure projects financed by the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Romania is among the leading countries with an investment of almost EUR 5.1 billion, followed by Italy and Spain. In Romania, infrastructure investment was on high level in 2021-2023, and after a peak, will see a reduction of around 2.7%.
In June 2024, the European Council adopted the TEN-T Regulation review that underlines the creation of a seamless and interoperable transport system which ensures sustainable connectivity. The new regulation merges the core network corridors with the rail freight corridors with the so-called European Transport Corridors. This decision was the basis of the concept of increasing synergies between transport planning and operation which will support the development of sustainable transport and modal shift towards rail and inland waterways. In addition, the new concept also helps digitalisation of rail infrastructure and operation which will lead to an integrated and interoperable transport network.
Market accessibility is another important segment, Western Europe and North America are the most accessible regions, while in Romania, this sector is on positive trend from 50% in 2017/2019 to 65% in 2021/2023, the Director General of UNIFE explained.
On rail control-command and signalling (CCS) sector, the European countries must deploy the ERTMS according to the deadlines defined in the TEN-T Regulation, but according to the presentation of UNIFE, the current market value will slightly decrease towards 2027-2029, when the value will amount to EUR 210 million per year. In Romania, the current CCS market is at EUR 250 million per year, representing a significant growth from 2019-2021 when the rail control market only recorded EUR 60 million per year. The TEN-T core network should be equipped with ERTMS by 2030 and the extended core network by 2040. Class B systems will be decommissioned by the end of 2040 on the core network, and in 2045 on the extended core network and by the end of 2050 on the comprehensive network.
“According to the World Rail Market Study 2024, after a decline caused by the pandemic, the market rebounded, growing by 2.7% annually with an average annual volume of EUR 201.8 billion in 2021-2023 and it is expected to grow by 3% annually after 2023 to reach EUR 240.8 billion by 2027-2029. Overall accessibility for EU rail suppliers continues to decline, in line with the historical downtrend, reaching 59% in 2021-2023, a period when the changes in accessibility led to a reduction in the accessible market of EUR 2.9 billion per year,” Enno Wiebe explained.
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