The cost of the EU infrastructure development that would be necessary to meet the transport demand was estimated at over EUR1.5 Trillion for 2010-2030. However, in the years and decades to come it will be more and more difficult to find ways to invest in the transport infrastructure.
Under the circumstances, preserving mobility will only be possible through sustainable strategies. The European transport system developed in the context of generally low oil prices, infrastructure extension, technological supremacy and limited environmental constraints, but at the present moment it must adapt to different framework conditions. The expected growth of emerging economies and of world population will undoubtedly exert pressure on natural resources.
In addition, the technological challenges also offer interesting opportunities. Profound transformations of the public transport system – in terms of tram network development, light tram and metro – can lead to considerable progress in a transport system that heads, in the best case, for marginal improvements regarding efficiency. Service levels should not be compromised because of the new constraints. Structural changes in the transport sector can improve life and environment quality, maintaining the citizens’ freedom to travel and the EU industry competitiveness.
The transformation of transportation towards more efficient, more environmentally-friendly, safer and more reliable modes will not be possible if only a small number of specific interventions are used. Transportation represents a complex system based on the interaction between infrastructure, vehicles, information technology, rules and behaviours. All these elements must be part of a common vision of change.
A change of transportation is also a good opportunity for the equipment manufacturing industry and for the logistics operators, considering that other regions of the world will also face similar constraints as regards resources, as worldwide mobility demand continues to increase. The best technology will benefit from an expanding market for trade.
The urban dimension will become even more important, as it is expected that the share of Europeans living in urban areas will increase from 74% at present to approximately 85% in 2050. Designing sustainable cities is one of the biggest challenges faced by the policymakers.
However, it is expected that technological improvements for all modes of transport will lead to energy savings and will reduce emissions per passenger/kilometre by up to 90% in 2050 at the level of intercity and regional journeys (up to 500 km). This will not solve the traffic congestion problem which could worsen with the increase of travel volumes, despite the introduction of advanced traffic management technologies.
A systematic selection of the most efficient mode of transport among public and private modes of transport is also necessary so that intercity journeys could become more sustainable and efficient.
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