Urban and regional transport is increasingly changing, peoples’ demands and transport needs are also changing, they are not the same as those twenty years ago. Technology has also changed…a lot, in fact. Mobile information and communication technologies developed rapidly. Global competition in transport industry and the fight against climate change are a pressing issue.
As we can easily see new transport services and systems emerge, mobility needs and patterns evolve, thus, these challenges could be the perfect way for a happy city. There are five factors which will have a significant influence on the demand for travel over the coming decades whatever actions are taken within the transport sector. And these factors are population growth (mainly in urban areas), migration and urbanisation, peoples’ demands for a more efficient transport system, income growth which will influence how travel demand grows and mobile technologies and the internet. “The most important changes that will have a clear relationship with demand resulting from transport technologies is the price which citizens will face to travel in the coming decade. In particular this relates to changing engine ef ficiency, technology and fuel types. The commitment to a 95 g/km of CO2 for new car emissions by 2021 constitutes a 26% improvement on the 2015 standard and will, significantly reduce the costs of motoring and stimulate demand in many areas”, the EU study “The World is Changing. Transport Too” reveals. We should know to address the knowledge gaps in the changing influences on travel demand and we also should invest in solutions for more inclusive mobility systems. With regard to urbanisation trends, the increasing proportion of the population living in urban areas by 2030 should reduce car use, especially since differences in daily travel behaviour between large cities and car dependent rural areas have increased over time. In general, larger cities have good public transport networks and lower car use. However, much will depend on the detail of where population growth takes place, as mobility patterns can vary significantly within metropolitan areas and the growth may out strip the pace at which new transport systems can be developed or existing ones expanded.
The more we innovate, the easier we travel
The last two decades have seen several innovations in rail transport technology which in various ways act to make better use of system capacity and provide better information to users. The systems which are implemented today are far more advanced than those of even a decade ago, with greater availability of Global Positioning System (GPS) technology impacting on where and how real time information and navigation can be delivered to travelers. The EU study reveals that the population of the EU is forecast to grow by 10 million over the coming fifteen years, thus a larger population will increase travel demand. There is also significant growth pressure on major cities and particularly capital regions. The total volumes of demand growth on already congested networks and overcrowded public transport systems will therefore be very significant at a more local scale. Whilst there will be a continued role out of intelligent transport systems, integrated ticketing and shared mobility options, it seems likely that this will happen at a slower pace than many of the changes set out above, with impacts being more local than European scale. In general, the demand impacts are small with the emphasis being on improving operational efficiency. The most dynamic changing transport technology relates to advances in mobile technologies. There will be a step change in the ability of companies to track or crowd source movement data and use this to generate increasingly tailored information to users. This may be tied in to incentive schemes to encourage mode shift and could form part of integrated payment platforms. Mobility as a service will undoubtedly evolve in the coming decade. However, it will need to be more attractive to users than the existing system. Furthermore, new transport services are constantly emerging due to the widespread use of smartphones and intelligent application developments. Therefore, all the elements needed for the transition beyond fossil fuels are available today. The transformation of transport goes beyond new car drive systems and fuel types. In practice, transport will become increasingly multimodal, resulting in one useful service instead of a collection of distinct modal options. Increasingly, this modal coordination is spreading in Europe’s capitals and major cities. Without an accelerated decarbonisation of transport, European and global climate change goals cannot be achieved. The still-growing pressure to resolve the climate change problem will dominate both the technological developments and the organization of transport in the coming years. In addition to the sector’s important contribution in reducing greenhouse gases, demographic change and urbanisation will also have a major impact on the future organisation of transport. Nonetheless, all of these background trends are being surpassed by the all-dominating megatrend: digitalization of transport systems. Against all these developments, it could be still unknown which trends and driving forces will shape the transport sector in coming years. The questions are: which technical and societal trends will emerge, and what influence will they have on mobility solutions?
by Elena Ilie
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