The cost of infrastructure development in the European Union, necessary to meet the transport demand, was estimated at over EUR 1.5 Trillion for the period 2010-2030. However, in the years and decades to come, it will be more and more difficult to find means of investing in the transport infrastructure. The aging of population means that the highest value of resources will be absorbed by social insurance costs. Moreover, the economic crisis in 2008-2009 affected public budgets and private loans to a great extent. The economic recession period will be followed by long consolidation processes.
These developments will intensify the declining trend in transport infrastructure financing from government budget, which, before the financial crisis, was to some extent compensated by an increase in private sector financing. The financing gap needs to be filled through combined efforts by the governments, the EU, financial institutions and through new capital market models and new pricing mechanisms, such as congestion pricing.
Poor transport infrastructure is an impediment to the economy. Numerous studies confirm the relationship between geographical accessibility and economic growth. In particular, a recent study, based on an example from Germany, shows that connection to the high speed rail network significantly increases the economic growth rate of cities. Business as usual is not a viable option: increasing transport costs for businesses will hamper economic growth, the tight carbon constraint on the EU economy will not be kept, and citizens will be restricted in their individual mobility and impoverished by more expensive access to goods and services.
Transforming transport and making it more efficient, cleaner, safer and more reliable will not be possible with just a small number of selected interventions. Transport is a complex system that is based on the interaction of infrastructure, vehicles, information technology, rules and behaviour. All these elements must be part of a common vision for change. A transformation of transport is also a great opportunity for vehicle and equipment manufacturing industry and for logistic operators, since other regions of the world will face similar constraints on resources, while global demand for mobility keeps growing. The best technology will benefit from an expanding market for its commercialisation.
Public transport has to gain a higher share than today in the transport mix, become easily accessible for everyone and fully integrated with non-motorised modes (metro, light metro, tram).
Technology doesn’t slow down integrated mobility, administrative barriers do
A worrying aspect in Europe is the ageing of population which will force transport services to adapt to a growing elderly population. People aged over 65 will represent 29% of the total population by 2050, compared to 17% today, says the European Commission. In the European Union, around 1 person out of 6 has disabilities. The quality, reliability, safety and accessibility, especially for disabled people, as well as public transport safety, will be essential for a better use of public transport.
For most of the citizens in the European Union, personal transport modes will however remain the only alternative due to the complexity of their daily journeys. Using vehicles that are more efficient in terms of consumption will be a necessity.
Town planning, access regulation including low emission zones, stricter controls on parking, pricing policies and alternative forms of accessibility could significantly influence mobility choice.
Promoting better modal choices will require greater integration of the modal networks: airports, ports, railway, metro and bus stations, car hire spots and parking areas, should increasingly be merged and conceived as multimodal connection platforms for passengers.
The development of a properly-integrated transport system (such as creating a single railway area) is currently delayed by a series of issues which still exist in the market and in the regulation. Regulation barriers in accessing a market, technical incompatibilities between transport modes and even the inappropriate or obsolete legislation are among the greatest challenges.
Both the Commission and the European Parliament hope that the adoption of the Fourth Railway Package would help harmonise railway passenger transport servi-ces in the EU and stimulate the sustainable and integrated mobility in the macro-region and in metropolitan areas.
The Commission has recently published a study on the available regulation alternatives for opening the domestic passenger transport markets. The study concludes that the real market opening will have a major positive impact on the railway sectors across the EU. Evidence supports the Commission’s opinion according to which the market opening will trigger innovation and improved quality and therefore, a higher number of passengers.
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